项目风险管理（36学时）课程简介

项目风险管理是项目管理九大知识体系中的一个部分，是一门系统介绍项目风险管理的基本概念、项目风险规划、风险估计、风险决策、风险评价、风险应对和风险监控的理论和方法。通过课程的教学使学生理解和掌握项目风险管理的基本理论、过程和方法，具备从事项目管理工作所必需的风险管理知识和解决实际问题的基本技能。

项目风险管理（36学时）主要讲授项目风险管理的基础理论、项目风险规划、风险估计、风险决策、风险评价、风险应对和风险监控等部分的理论及其实际应用。项目风险管理基础理论主要介绍项目风险管理的历史与发展情况、项目风险管理的作用和意义、项目风险的基本概念和基本过程；风险管理规划主要讲授项目风险管理规划的主要作用与意义、制定项目风险管理规划的主要过程和工作；项目风险识别主要讲授项目风险识别的基本概念、依据、步骤以及具体的识别技术和工具如德尔菲法、头脑风暴法、风险核对表、SWOT等；项目风险估计主要讲授项目风险估计的基本概念、过程和内容以及项目风险估计的主要方法如故障树分析法、蒙特卡洛模拟法、进度与费用风险的网络分析技术等；项目风险决策主要讲授项目风险决策的主要方法如决策树、贝叶斯后验概率法、确定性决策、风险性决策和不确定决策方法以及效用理论；项目风险评价主要讲授项目风险评价的目的和步骤以及项目风险评价的方法如主观评分法、等风险图法和风险矩阵法、层次分析法和模糊综合评价法；项目风险应对主要讲授项目风险应对的基本概念、应对过程和应对策略；项目风险监控主要讲授项目风险监控的基本概念、主要内容和监控方法。

使用教材：《项目风险管理》郭波 龚时雨 谭云涛. 北京：电子工业出版社，2008.

Project Risk Management (36 class hours)

Project risk management is the core course of the Project Management Knowledge Areas. The aim of project risk management course is to provide an analytic, systematic and critical attitude towards the management of risks in all kinds of project. The foundation rests as much on the managerial as the mathematical-engineering paradigms and intends to raise the general awareness of the profession to facilitate the emergence during the life-cycle of a project.

Project risk management includes the processes of conducting risk management planning, risk identification, risk analysis, risk response planning, and monitoring and control risk on a project. The objectives of project risk management are to increase the probability and impact of positive events, and decrease the probability and impact of negative events in the project.

The process of project risk management can be broken down into the project risk management system. So the course can focus on some critical building blocks for understanding and managing risk and uncertainty. That is risk definition and classification, risk identification, risk analysis, risk response and risk control.

Risk identification: The foundation of any successful project risk management endeavor is identifying the right risks that can potentially impact a project. This is where the risk identification course is helpful. The course explains how to use some recognized methods for risk identification. These methods are checklist and survey, flowchart and insurance policy review. Others are physical inspection, compliance review, procedures and policies review and contract review. Others are experts, financial statement analysis and loss data analysis. Mastery of these methods is required in order for one to exhaustively identify risks to a project so that these risks can be planned for and handled accordingly.

Risk analysis: evaluate the consequences associated with the type of risk, or combination of risks, by using analytical techniques. Assess the impact of risk by using various risk measurement techniques. Risk analysis can be broken down into two broad methods, and these methods are qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative risk analysis assesses the impact and likelihood of the identified risks by evaluating the priority of risks, giving consideration to the impact on the project's cost, schedule, scope and quality objectives . Typical tools used in performing a qualitative risk analysis are risk probability and impact assessment and probability and impact matrix. Others are preliminary risk analysis(PRA), and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA/FMECA). The course gives the introduction of the techniques used in the proper application of these methods. Quantitative methods heavily rely on statistical methods such as various interviewing techniques, probability distribution, sensitivity analysis, fault tree analysis, decision tree analysis and modeling and simulation in order to quantify the impact risks to the overall project status.

Risk response: Consider how the risk should be managed by either transferring it to another party or retaining it. A course in risk response planning focuses on studying the process of developing options to minimize threats and maximize opportunities. A risk response plan is done after all the risks are laid out and analyzed. It should be done in line with the significance of the risk and bearing in mind whether the proposed mitigation actions are cost-effective and practical.

Risk control: Risk monitoring and control is the process of identifying and analyzing new risk, keeping track of these new risks and forming contingency plans in case they arise. It ensures that the resources that the company puts aside for a project is operating properly. The process of risk control and monitoring requires risk owners to track identified risks, reveal new risks, implement risk response plans and gauge the risk response plans' effectiveness.

《项目风险管理》课程教学进度计划